Regulation is the most uneven of the five signals. I am tracking what is in force (the EU AI Act), what is pending (the US Omnibus amendment), and what is absent (no US federal AI law). The asymmetry is the finding.
I am trying to track what the real measurable effects of AI are being reported. I trace every number to its primary source. Where the data is confirmed, I say so. Where it is directionally accurate but imprecisely sourced, I say that too. Where it cannot be verified, I say that as well. This tracker is the result.
I am not an analyst or forecaster. I trace every number to its primary source. Where a number is confirmed, I say so. Where it is directionally accurate but imprecisely sourced, I say that too. Where it cannot be verified, I say that as well. Where credible sources disagree, I present both positions. This means my dashboard will sometimes show fewer data points than a typical industry report. I think that is a feature, not a bug.
I will update the tracker every month. Each update will add a new data point, so over time you can see whether a signal is accelerating, stabilising, or receding. Historical data will never be overwritten. After three or four updates, the trends will become the most important part of the dashboard. I am tracking five areas (labour market, revenue concentration, compute, regulation, sector disruption), each broken into multiple metrics. This page covers regulatory response, which has four metrics. The other four signals will get the same treatment in subsequent updates.
Source selection: I search for primary regulatory texts (the EU AI Act itself, state legislation trackers), legal analysis from major firms (DLA Piper, Holland and Knight), and policy research organisations. I exclude any source where the underlying regulatory text cannot be located or where the interpretation is not traceable to the legislation.
Confidence ratings: VERY HIGH = published government dataset or peer-reviewed study with large sample. HIGH = primary dataset with transparent methodology. MEDIUM-HIGH = primary aggregator with broad scope. MEDIUM = secondary source or different methodology. MODERATE = contextual only, not directly comparable. LOW = qualitative or untraceable.
Limitations: Regulatory landscapes change quickly. The EU AI Act implementation timeline may shift. US state-level AI legislation is evolving weekly; the 20+ figure is a snapshot, not a continuous count. The EU Omnibus amendment is in progress and its final form is uncertain. Where data points cannot be traced to a single publication, I note this explicitly. My goal is to present what the regulatory environment shows, not to predict legislative outcomes.
Date of access: All sources were last accessed in June 2026. Source URLs were verified live during research. Where a source may have been updated since, the most recent version at time of writing is cited.
The original claim: the EU AI Act classifies workplace AI, including recruitment, performance monitoring, work allocation, and termination decisions, as "high risk". Most high-risk (Annex III) obligations apply from August 2026, with the remaining high-risk obligations following in August 2027. Fines can reach 3% of global turnover. This traces directly to the EU AI Act itself and legal analysis from Holland and Knight.
The EU AI Act entered into force on 1 August 2024, with a phased implementation timeline. General-purpose AI (GPAI) obligations took effect August 2025. The majority of high-risk AI system obligations under Annex III, including conformity assessments, risk management systems, and transparency requirements, take effect August 2026. The remaining high-risk obligations (Annex I) follow in August 2027. The classification of workplace AI as high risk is explicit in Annex III of the Act, covering recruitment, performance monitoring, work allocation, and termination decisions. Fines are tiered (Article 99): up to 7% of global annual turnover or €35M for prohibited practices; up to 3% or €15M for high-risk non-compliance (the tier most relevant to workplace AI); and up to 1.5% or €7.5M for supplying incorrect information. This is the most comprehensive AI regulatory framework in force anywhere in the world.
| Source | Figure | Scope | Confidence | Primary? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU AI Act (Regulation 2024/1689) | Aug 2025 | General-purpose AI (GPAI) obligations compliance deadline | VERY HIGH | YES |
| EU AI Act (Regulation 2024/1689) | Aug 2026 | Majority of high-risk (Annex III) obligations compliance deadline | VERY HIGH | YES |
| EU AI Act (Regulation 2024/1689) | Aug 2027 | Remaining high-risk (Annex I) obligations compliance deadline | VERY HIGH | YES |
| EU AI Act (Article 99) | 7% / 3% / 1.5% | Tiered fines: 7%/€35M prohibited, 3%/€15M high-risk, 1.5%/€7.5M misinformation | VERY HIGH | YES |
| Holland and Knight | Aug 2026 | Legal analysis confirming compliance timeline for US companies | HIGH | YES |
| Beyond Tomorrow | Aug 2026 / Aug 2027 | Regulatory update confirming phased enforcement | HIGH | YES |
The original claim: the United States has no comprehensive federal AI law. This is not a projection or an estimate. It is a statement of fact as of June 2026. Multiple bills have been introduced in Congress, but none has passed both chambers and been signed into law.
As of June 2026, the United States has executive orders (the Biden-era AI Executive Order from October 2023, which was rescinded by the incoming administration in January 2025) and agency-specific guidance, but no comprehensive legislation governing AI development or deployment has passed Congress. Several bills have been introduced, including the AI Research Innovation and Accountability Act and various sector-specific proposals, but none has achieved bipartisan support sufficient to pass both the House and Senate. The regulatory vacuum at the federal level is the most striking feature of the US AI regulatory landscape.
| Source | Figure | Scope | Confidence | Primary? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional record | None | No comprehensive AI bill passed as of June 2026 | VERY HIGH | YES |
| Beyond Tomorrow | None | Analysis confirming absence of federal law | HIGH | YES |
| Executive Order 14110 (rescinded) | Rescinded Jan 2025 | Biden-era AI Executive Order, no longer in effect | VERY HIGH | YES |
Over 20 states passing conflicting AI laws creates an impossible compliance environment for any company operating nationally. Business lobbying for a single federal standard will intensify. Once a labour market shock makes AI regulation politically urgent, a federal law will move quickly. The patchwork makes federal action more likely, not less.
Congress has failed to pass tech regulation for decades (privacy, data security, platform liability). There is no reason to believe AI will be different. State attorneys general have become the de facto regulators of technology in the US. The patchwork is messy, but it is also more responsive to local conditions than a one-size-fits-all federal law would be.
The original claim: over 20 US states have enacted or proposed AI-related legislation. This traces to Beyond Tomorrow's regulatory update and legal analysis from DLA Piper. The exact count is difficult because "AI law" covers everything from deepfake bans to employment disclosure requirements, and new bills are introduced weekly.
The patchwork is real. Colorado's AI Act (SB 24-205) requires impact assessments for "high-risk" AI decisions in employment and insurance. Illinois already requires disclosure when AI is used in job interviews. California has multiple AI bills in play, covering everything from deepfakes to employment algorithmic accountability. Texas, New York, and Virginia have introduced or passed AI-related measures. The breadth of activity is striking, but the coherence is not. Companies operating nationally face a growing compliance maze with overlapping and sometimes contradictory requirements.
| Source | Figure | Scope | Confidence | Primary? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beyond Tomorrow | 20+ | US states with AI laws enacted or proposed | MEDIUM-HIGH | YES |
| DLA Piper | 20+ | Legal analysis confirming state-level activity | MEDIUM-HIGH | YES |
| Colorado SB 24-205 | Enacted | Comprehensive state AI Act (employment, insurance) | VERY HIGH | YES |
| Illinois AIPA | Enacted | AI disclosure in job interviews | VERY HIGH | YES |
Note: State counts are approximate. "Comprehensive" means bills covering multiple AI use cases (employment, insurance, education) in a single framework, modelled on the EU AI Act. Employment includes AI disclosure, impact assessment, and bias audit requirements. The exact count changes as bills are introduced, amended, and enacted.
The original claim: the EU is already considering an "Omnibus" amendment to delay some high-risk AI obligations under the AI Act. This signals that even regulators feel the tension between safety and competitiveness. This traces to DLA Piper's legal analysis of the proposed amendment.
The proposed Omnibus simplification package would defer certain high-risk AI obligations, potentially extending compliance timelines for specific categories. This is significant because it signals that the EU itself recognises the compliance burden may be too heavy, too fast. However, an amendment in progress is not an amendment passed. The political dynamics are complex: industry groups favour delay, civil society organisations oppose it, and the European Parliament is divided. The final scope could range from narrow technical adjustments to broad timeline extensions. I will update this section when the amendment's final text is available.
| Source | Figure | Scope | Confidence | Primary? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLA Piper | In progress | Legal analysis of proposed Omnibus simplification amendment | MEDIUM-HIGH | YES |
| Beyond Tomorrow | In progress | Policy update confirming Omnibus consideration | MEDIUM-HIGH | YES |
| Metric | Source | URL |
|---|---|---|
| EU AI Act deadline | EU AI Act (official) | artificialintelligenceact.eu |
| Holland and Knight | hklaw.com | |
| Beyond Tomorrow | beyondtmrw.org | |
| US federal AI law | Congressional record | congress.gov |
| Beyond Tomorrow | beyondtmrw.org | |
| US state AI laws | Beyond Tomorrow | beyondtmrw.org |
| DLA Piper | dlapiper.com | |
| EU Omnibus amendment | DLA Piper | dlapiper.com |
| Beyond Tomorrow | beyondtmrw.org |
| Rating | Definition | Used for |
|---|---|---|
| VERY HIGH | Published government dataset or peer-reviewed study with large sample | EU AI Act text, enacted state legislation, Congressional record |
| HIGH | Primary dataset with transparent methodology | Legal analysis from major firms (Holland and Knight), regulatory updates |
| MEDIUM-HIGH | Primary aggregator with broad scope | Beyond Tomorrow, DLA Piper legal analysis of pending amendments |
| MEDIUM | Secondary source or different methodology | Not applicable to this signal |
| MODERATE | Contextual only, not directly comparable | State-level AI law category counts (approximate) |
| LOW | Qualitative or untraceable | Not used in this signal |